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The Global Warming Debate...
 In the past 100 years scientists have debated back and forth as to whether the world was cooling or warming. During the 1930's there was a pronounced warming trend which caused great concern. Then, during the 1960's and 1970's there was a pronounced cooling trend. The April 28, 1975 issue of Newsweek predicted the coming of another ice age, and that we were just six degrees away from a "drastic decline in food production... The resulting famines could be catastrophic." Newsweek reporter, Peter Gwynne, went on to state that scientists felt that drastic measures were necessary to stem these "ominous signs" such as "melting the arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot."
Most scientists felt sure that the extended cooling trend was attributable to the activities of mankind. By the late 1980's these scientists did a complete turn-around; changing their minds again, deciding that the new warming trend was attributable to the activities of mankind. Luckily no one had acted on their previous cataclysmic warnings and had started spreading gigatons of that black soot all over the north and south poles!
Now this great debate has entered the political arena with those on the left, the tree-huggers, wringing their hands, saying: "The end of the world is at hand!" and those on the right, the coal-diggers, in their blind, quizzical manner, saying: "What, me worry?!"
Neither are right. The quiet truth lies somewhere between these two distant polarized viewpoints.
"This could literally end civilization. I know it sounds alarmist, as if this is hyperbole, like a man with a white beard holding a placard, saying the end of the world is near -- but this really is a planetary emergency." -- Al Gore
"The fundamental aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed, and hence clamoring to be led to safety, by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary." -- Henry Louis Mencken
This past July, 2006, has been called the hottest month in history. The following graph from the National Climatic Data Center disproves that myth. The 1930's had three of the hottest months in history; it was also a time in which scientists feared global warming -- not realizing that it was merely a fluctuation in solar radiation.
MYTH: The industrialized nations and their global warming gasses have destroyed the snows of Kilimanjaro.
REALITY: Lately the poster child for global warming seems to be Tanzania's Mount Kilimanjaro. Ernest Hemingway's book Snows of Kilimanjaro made the mountain so famous that every year nearly 10,000 tourists climb to its peak, 19,340 feet high, to see it "wide as all the world..." In a recent special titled Global Warming -- What You Need To Know, Tom Brokaw lamented the fact that in just a few short years (2020) all of the snows will be gone. That the industrialized nations, spewing out their polluting gasses had induced this global warming that was destroying the ice fields of Tanzania's Mount Kilimanjaro. What he failed to say was that during the 1930's, the previous warming period of the 20th century, 45 percent of Kilimanjaro's ice cap disappeared due to normal cycles of the sun. But then, even as the planet cooled between these two cycles, still another 21 percent of the mountain's glaciers disappeared. During the present warming period only 12 percent of the ice has dissolved -- which is the slowest rate in the past century.
Past eons have shown that Kilimanjaro's glaciers vary dramatically; sometimes expanding in warmer times; sometimes contracting during colder periods. One of the main factors in the glacier's mass is the surrounding humidity. When the climate is dry the glacier shrinks. And then when clouds cover the peaks the snows and ice fields again spread across its flanks.
It is true that the strongest negative influence to Mount Kilimanjaro has been man -- but indigenous man! The forests surrounding the mountain have been cut and burned by local farmers for agriculture. The lack of trees and the moisture they add to the surrounding area has reduced general cloud formation; thereby reducing both the precipitation and snow fall over the mountain top. The lack of reflective snow cover increases solar heat absorption, furthering the evaporation of the ice fields.
One last influencing factor is the location of Mount Kilimanjaro; It is situated in the heart of the tropics -- Ice can never prevail against warm dry winds. Dry dusty winds darken the old snow causing it to absorb more sun rays and evaporate that much faster.
MYTH: There is no proof that such a slight overall increase in overall temperature will effect our way of life.
REALITY: As the earth warms there are three very predictable effects: 1.) Life increases -- History has shown that during cold ages the human population decreases, while during warming periods the human population dramatically increases. 2.) The deserts spread -- The increase in deserts is attributable to both human activity such as destroying the forests and the drying hotter winds blowing across the lands. 3.) Famine and starvation -- With less tillable land and more humans to feed, this is the end result of general temperature increases. In 50 to 100 years, our quality of life will greatly diminish as the temperature rises -- unless necessary countermeasures are addressed; such as reclaiming the deserts.
MYTH: There is a consensus among practically all scientists that global warming is a clear and present danger.
REALITY: 19,700 scientists from around the world signed the following petition refuting that global warming was in fact a potential catastrophe-in-waiting:
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"We urge the United States government to reject the global warming agreement that was written in Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and any other similar proposals. The proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind.
"There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth."
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The complete list of the scientists can be found at this web page:
http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p37.htm
In addition, there is also the 'Leipzig Declaration on Global Climate Change' which is a statement signed by 80 academics and 25 weather climatologists:
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"We believe the Kyoto Protocol -- to curtail carbon dioxide emissions from only part of the world community -- is dangerously simplistic, quite ineffective, and economically destructive to jobs and standards-of-living. ... We consider the drastic emission control policies deriving from the Kyoto conference -- lacking credible support from the underlying science -- to be ill-advised and premature."
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MYTH: The actions of mankind are causing global warming.
REALITY: According to Professor William M. Gray, Colorado State University: "This small warming is likely a result of the natural alterations in global ocean currents which are driven by ocean salinity variations. Ocean circulation variations are as yet little understood. Human kind has little or nothing to do with the recent temperature changes. We are not that influential." Mr. Gray, who has worked in the field for 50 years, has labeled global warming "one of the greatest hoaxes ever perpetrated on the American people."
Additionally, Dr. Tim Patterson, paleoclimatologist and Professor of Geology at Carleton University in Canada states, "There is no meaningful correlation between CO2 levels and Earth's temperature over this geologic time frame. In fact, when CO2 levels were over ten times higher than they are now, about 450 million years ago, the planet was in the depths of the absolute coldest period in the last half billion years. On the basis of this evidence, how could anyone still believe that the recent relatively small increase in CO2 levels would be the major cause of the past century's modest warming?"
Professor Emeritus Jan Veizer, University of Ottawa, writes: "The alternative model argues for celestial phenomena as the principal climate driver ... Models and empirical observations are both indispensable tools of science, yet when discrepancies arise, observations should carry greater weight than theory. If so, the multitude of empirical observations favours celestial phenomena as the most important driver of terrestrial climate on most time scales."
MYTH: If it weren't for the United States, the Kyoto Protocol to cut greenhouse gas emissions would be a rousing success.
REALITY: In actuality, the promises made by the signers to treaty are nothing more than a lot of hot air. Country after country has stated that they can no longer fulfill the commitments to which they originally agreed. China's CO2 emissions have risen dramatically since signing the treaty. UK is emitting 92% more methane than it acknowledges. France's emissions are 42% higher than they admit. Both Canada and Germany now say they will no longer be able to come close to what they signed off on the treaty. Germany, the staunchest supporter of the Kyoto Protocol, had emissions that were 70% higher than they stated. The United States felt the goals were unrealistic and refused, in all honesty, to sign an agreement it knew it couldn't keep. The failure of most signatory nations to achieve basic emissions targets effectively kills the Kyoto Protocol.
MYTH: The only probable cause for global warming is the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
REALITY: There are other probable causes for such temperature anomalies including normal climatic changes and/or increased cyclical solar sunspot activity as shown in the following diagram. If one states that this is just a coincidence then maybe an increase in CO2 levels is also just a coincidence.
Another link between sunspot activity and global temperature changes is the Maunder Minimum which occurred during the Little Ice Age between 1645 and 1715 when sunspots became exceedingly rare and the weather became exceedingly cold. During one 30-year period within the Maunder Minimum astronomers observed solar activity of only about 50 sunspots, as opposed to a more typical 50,000 sunspots. The Maunder Minimum coincided with the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, during which North America and Europe suffered bitterly cold winters that encompassed three of the four seasons destroying crops and causing widespread famine.
Climatologists have scanned the records over the past century in search of global weather trends and possible causes for the variances observed (prior to that no in-depth accurate records were kept). These scientists tend to emphasize three main forces: 1.) Human-caused (anthropogenic) greenhouse gasses, 2.) Volcanoes and 3.) 11-year sunspot cycles. Climatologists tend to ignore other causes due to lack of records and lack of knowledge in regards to their overall impact on global weather patterns and ecology.
Of the three, the sun and its long-term sunspot cycles are most neglected since, up until very recent years, there has been a lack of direct measurements of its pulsing cycles of radiation. But even with our lack of in-depth knowledge of its vast swings over the previous thousands of years, it should be appear obvious that the sun, with its constant fluctuations in solar radiation, is the principal cause of long-term climatic change.
The impacts of global warming in Africa, especially in Tanzania, can not end soon because of poverty which is prevailing within the Tanzanian socety; simply, people still depend on the natural resource to acquire the basic needs thats why they cut down trees, for firewood, burn forest because of poor methods used in agriculture.
Likewise the issue of ignorance and cultural belief in rural cause also global warming impacts, this is due to poor polices of enviromental education in African country people have no education on how to conserve and preserve their environment, as result all these cause the increase the global warming and its impacts such as the melting of ice in mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania.
Posted By Ngatunga,Anton Raphael, www.MisunderstoodUniverse.com | 5/24/08 1:42 AM
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Just fly into any large metropolitan area and look at the smog. DO we really need to do that to our atmosphere? Whether the end of the world is at hand or no - we need to heighten our consciousness and lift our outlook to cleaner, purer ways to live. If the hype surrounding Global Warming is helping humanity as a whole to stop a minute and think about what we really should do with our environment, then it's doing more good than a complacent attitude or acceptance and tolerance of actions which are arguably negative and just plain dirty!
Posted By Arielle Moth, www.MisunderstoodUniverse.com | 4/8/08 5:30 PM
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While the Kyoto accord may have wound up ad an absolute failure, I'm happy to see consiousness raised around greenhouse gasses. Greener cars and industry will go a long way to solving health and environmental problems.
Posted By Jeff Bailey, www.MisunderstoodUniverse.com | 4/4/08 10:21 PM
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Worldwide humidity has increased by over 2% due to man-made environmental forcing. This was reported in Nature, ABC News, USA Today, and many other news outlets in Oct. 2007. Sure the planet has been dramatically colder and warmer than present over the last few billion years, but the last few decades is the first time that human activity has been the primary forcing agent. It's no mystery that 6 billion+ people can have such an amazing effect. It doesn't matter whether it's caused by releasing more CO2 or simply poisoning all of the world's rivers with so much fertilizer that it kills off the plankton responsible for recycling our air... the effect is real and it is caused by us.
Two new studies have uncovered the first links between man-made global warming and an increase in humidity throughout all levels of Earth's atmosphere.
One study, published in today's edition of the journal Nature, found that the overall increase in worldwide surface humidity from 1973-99 was 2.2%, which is due "primarily to human-caused global warming," according to study co-author Nathan Gillett of the University of East Anglia, in Norwich, U.K.
The burning of fossil fuels (oil, coal, natural gas) is considered the chief way humans contribute to climate change because it releases heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
Along with the added heat stress on people from the increased humidity, Gillett says the additional moisture in the atmosphere could lead to heavier rains and more volatile tropical storms. "If the humidity is increasing, then hurricane intensity will increase too," he says.
[MODERATOR: ABC News has never been noted as being a rational source of scientifiic facts. Also, rain does not cause hurricanes -- moderate dust storms blowing across the Sahara are the seeds of those hurricanes that form devastating Katrinas -- While, on the other hand, severe dust storms will actually cancel out the formation of hurricanes. Man is the cause of many disasters, from the creation of the atomic bomb to the distortion of scientific facts. The Mid-West is presently going through its coldest winter in over 100 years, which, according to ABC News is caused by global warming -- Go figure!]
Posted By Zorg, www.MisunderstoodUniverse.com | 2/13/08 1:53 PM
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It is true ,we already experience Global Warming on this planet.I have certain evedance concerning the effect of global warming in Tanzania[east africa].[1] The higland [cool weather] such as Njombe district,mbeya region ,Mbinga district,villagers around Mt Kilimanjaro,Iringa Region ,they did not have Malaria disease before ,but they have it right now.And you do not need to wear heavy coat during winter time[june -july].but currently people are wearing summer clothes than before[1975].Rivers are drying ,such Ruvu river[the source of water for Dar es salaam city inhabitants.This data are coming from the Institute Of Research And Environmental Quality[IREQ],based in Tanzania,east africa].
Ludigo Mhagama[Environmental scientist]
The Institute Of Research And Environmental Quality[IREQ]
P.O.BOX 80259
DAR ES SALAAM
TANZANIA[East Africa]
kanjolonga@yahoo.com
www.ireq-tanzania.com
Posted By Ludigo Mhagama, www.MisunderstoodUniverse.com | 1/10/08 6:12 PM
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Comment #7 by Peter Lamont. GENETIC COPIES by having children? I don't know about you, but my family tree has branches!
Posted By Lee Fowler, www.MisunderstoodUniverse.com | 1/1/08 11:09 PM
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Energy cannot be created nor destoryed. If truely Gobal Warming is happening, prehaps one can convert the heat energy into some other forms of useful energy i.e. strong winds and sea waves have been tapped through wind mills and water dams. Why not the "heat energy"?
Furthermore, the supposely "ice caps melting" should have taken some of the heat off too. In saying that, cold water contracts but at 4 degrees, it expands and upon freezing point, it actually expands up to 9% of its original volume. So the ice caps (of which most are grounded ice) will actually be much smaller (volume) when it melts into water.
Posted By Rek, www.MisunderstoodUniverse.com | 11/3/07 9:52 AM
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A global warming is a cerious thing we are in charge tu rescue us and but the bad thinkis that by all the tecnology we are going to continue like that until the earth can't exist. All is in our hands let take it and save the the world an win.
(NOTE: This responder must be a Democrat!!!)
Posted By Kami, www.MisunderstoodUniverse.com | 10/25/07 4:27 PM
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I am constantly amazed at the 'ecologists' ignorance. (I really think it is more tunnel vision).
It reminds me of the DDT paranoid reactions a few years ago. Locally, they wanted to ban DDT because they 'claimed' scientific proof that it was causing drastic reductions in the number of ducks being hatched in the wild. With the total debunking of their theory, they switched to claiming it was causing birth defects in humans.
Oh, the duckling debunking came when our old - very realistic State Forester, who not only was an avid duck hunter, but also an intensive observer of nature, pointed out that the culprit was actually the killing of skunks. Seems as we cruise the highways faster, and build homes around the lakes and ponds, we have killed off just about all the skunks! Of course you realize that skunks have an intense affinity for snapping turtle eggs, and sans the skunks, snapping turtles abound. A favored delicacy of snapping turtles is baby ducks - hence severely reduced baby ducklings reaching maturity.
Well, we successfully curtailed DDT use, but malaria now flourishes - Hey, just think what our population would have been if we still used DDT to curtail mosquitoes.
I just remain skeptical with some of the simplistic visions of the problem and the equally ridiculous solutions sometimes offered. Should we conserve - Yep! Should we use alternative fuels - Yep! Should we reduce waste (landfills, water, heat, energy, etc.) Absolutely! Should we try to learn more - Certainly! But knee-jerk Gore style over-reactions are never the way!
Oh, and while I am at it, centralized government, hatched by committee consensus by compromise - policy are NOT the answer - Carrots are...
Posted By Cal Hollis, www.MisunderstoodUniverse.com | 10/7/07 1:10 PM
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We need to change the way of life. By walking, using bicycles or using public transportion. And to stop clearing forests. Our organization currently is educating people in Tanzania, especially those around Mount Kilimajaro. Before they had the habit of burning so as clean the fields ready for cultivation. We now educate them not to do so, because they are going to release more carbon dioxide which is then traped by sun radiation and form heat waves. So the result is melting of the Mt. Kilimanjaro glacier causing climate change.
Ludigo Mhagama[environment consultant]
The Institute of Research and Environmental Quality.
P.O.BOX 80259
DAR-ES-SALAAM
TANZANIA [EAST AFRICA]
Posted By Ludigo Mhagama[The institute of research and Environmental quality"D,S,M TANZANIA[East Africa], www.MisunderstoodUniverse.com | 9/19/07 8:24 PM
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This is all very intersting stuff, I have kept a level playing field when it comes to "human induced climate change"(aka global warming). However the tipping point for me came when I realised that it is without doubt a mixture of natural phenomena that is casuing climate change, for example, when I read that when Krakatoa erupted, this ONE volcano eruption(ok it was big one) released more pollution(Co2 included) than humans have EVER produced. The one question that these enviromentalists(im refering to the current trend of biogts like Al Gore and his Live Earth concerts, which itself caused "a large carbon footprint") is if humans have caused global warming, how do they explain the graphs witch show the earths temp to be very erratic, sometimes rising and falling by as much as 3-4 degrees centigrade in 50-300 years? Forgive me if im wrong, but I dont think the cave men and their camp fires caused this. A lot of people these days hark on about how we dont get as much snow, as we used to, whilst looking at photos of the Thames freezing over. It seems a fair point, untill you read that this was mainly due to massive amounts of dust throw up by volcanic activity in Indonesia at the time. It was still snowing up unitll the summer months! Also dont forget that during the 70s all these scientists where claiming that the earth was going to COOL by 3-4 degrees centigrade (how they have reached such 2 massively different conculsions in a matter of 20 years is beyond me!). Dont forget the apocolyptic water shortages, the stories of oil running out by the turn of the century, and the best of them all, the Millenium Bug!(oh yeah some kids watch from Wales stopped working!) I think Ive made my point!
Posted By Alan Crute, www.MisunderstoodUniverse.com | 8/10/07 12:23 AM
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We have to face it, Earth can't keep up to our demands. We can still demand the same, even more, if there were fewer people. All you have to do is to have 2 kids. What's so hard about that? How many genetic copies of you does the World need?
We must reduce population numbers, everybody. Ease up on the baby-making fellas!
Posted By peter lamont, www.MisunderstoodUniverse.com | 4/28/07 10:50 AM
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As a physician, one knows that scientific conclusion does not come from obtaining the results one sets out for, but rather obtaining the results that are there - no matter whether or not they support the hypothesis. It alarms me how much politicizing has occurred in this area, and how true, scientific data and conclusions are being stiffled by an alarmist, political mob. It is of vital importance to our economy and survival to get the actual truth out - no matter what the conclusion is, good or bad.
Posted By Angela Riley, www.MisunderstoodUniverse.com | 4/9/07 8:10 AM
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I appreciate the hard evidence against the political tool that is Global Warming. I really appreciate it.
Posted By Nick Marshall, www.MisunderstoodUniverse.com | 3/15/07 12:29 PM
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I am happy to see the debate on this global warming issue. Having lived a fair number of years on this earth (72) during which time I have witnessed extreme termperature changes in the small area of the world of south western Ontario where I live, I have faith that human kind will be careful and not jump to conclusions until all results are proven.
Posted By Norma Siewert, www.MisunderstoodUniverse.com | 3/13/07 3:20 PM
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Responses to Richard Reddy:
CO2 levels: CO2 increases with increased temperature and drops with reduced temperature. It is a very minor factor, compared to water vapour - the biggest greenhouse gas, and human input is minor. If CO2 contributed to rises in temperature, there'd be a runaway effect leading to a Venusian climate, and earth's recent climactic history disproves this.
Chaotic weather: A warmed planet has lower temperature gradients between equator and pole, and hence less extreme weather.
Atlantic conveyor: In the mediaeval period, the global temperature was higher than it is now, and England was warm enough to grow vineyards. Why didnt the gulf stream stop, turning The UK icy and initiating your nightmare scenario?
Posted By Innes, www.MisunderstoodUniverse.com | 3/10/07 2:42 AM
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We are re-engineering our atmosphere, which now contains more than 270 ppm of CO2. This certainly increases the global heat budget!!!
This amount of heat energy has got to go somewhere. It drives weather systems, which are likely to establish different equilibrium states--or display chaotic transition states that could last a long time.
The biggest worry of that a lot of fresh water will shut-down the conveyors that distribute heat and provide warm climate at higher latitudes, where ice caps a mile thick have existed in recent geological history. Flips in climate can be very rapid, and we are not prepared for that. We would be lucky to save 10 percent of the world's population without the refinements of modern civilization that we are highly dependent upon.
We need to engineer new agriculture, housing and energy networks--as there will absolutely be ice ages in our future, as reliably as there are in the past, with or without the effects of pollution. North America will be wiped-clean by glaciers, again and again, as ice ages come and go, though we could adapt, by means of technology. (currently, our low tech past is more beneficial than our "high tech" present, for long-term survival, due to high levels of self-sufficiency).
Posted By Richard Reddy, www.MisunderstoodUniverse.com | 2/11/07 4:58 PM
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